New equipment demand continues to be buoyed by materially improved spot and contract rates, driven largely by the rapid shift in driver supply, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“Class 8 order strength continued in May, with preliminary orders of 26,500 units, up 103% y/y and 12% m/m (SA), respectively. Despite entering what is historically a weak period in the annual order cycle, new equipment demand remains supported by materially improved spot and contract rates, on top of regulatory clarity,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Spot freight rates have absorbed elevated fuel costs in stride, with net fuel rates rising ~39% y/y at the beginning of June. Spot rates are currently above contract rates, a positive omen for carriers’ contract rate negotiations and future profitability. Driver supply, according to ACT’s monthly survey of mid- to large-sized for-hire carriers, flipped from comfortable to tight beginning in January. The situation has deteriorated every month since, with April’s reading signaling tightness in the driver supply at levels not seen since mid-2021.”
Vieth added, “FMCSA’s crackdown on nondomiciled CDL holders became official in March, but self-selection appears to have started around the start of 2026. Add crackdowns on cheater ELDs, closed driver schools, and strict immigration enforcement that are squeezing productivity via restricting logbook cheating and a narrowing of the pipeline of new CDL candidates needed to offset freight growth and baby boomer retirements. Taken together, a strong case can be made that the driver supply will remain tight for an extended period, which in turn will allow fleets to find pricing relief on the heels of three years of falling profitability. Carriers’ profitability reprieve coupled with inbound regulations associated with even higher equipment costs in 2027 have also helped spur Class 8 order activity. Without a regulation looming, the trailer market is still waiting for materially stronger demand to arrive.”
Regarding the HD vocational market, Vieth concluded, “With large tech companies deploying nearly a trillion dollars in capital toward data centers and associated AI buildout needs (utilities/grid work) in 2026 alone, the vocational truck market appears poised to continue benefiting from strong secular tailwinds from AI data center builds and utility infrastructure improvements that show little to no sign of slowing in the medium term. Just last week, Google and Space X announced plans to raise $160 billion for AI projects.”
The NA CV forecast reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.
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ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel. ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
Additional Resources
While improved spot and contract rates have been the primary drivers of higher Class 8 orders, regulatory burdens, associated with higher equipment costs in 2027, have helped spur greater order activity, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.
“The improvement in tractor order activity starting in December 2025 boils down to improved spot and contract rates and regulatory clarity,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s President and Senior Analyst. “Despite fuel headwinds, with WTI oil largely trading at or above $90 a barrel since the beginning of the war, spot rate gains have remained sticky. In our view, a rapidly tightening driver supply that accelerated in January has helped shield spot rates from rising costs, with aggregate spot rates rising 25% y/y at the end of April.”
Vieth added, “ACT’s truckload fleet survey of ~40 mid- to large-sized fleets indicated the ability to find drivers in March became the hardest it had been since 2021, impacted by state actions, such as California revoking ~17k nondomicile CDLs and Indiana revoking 1.8k last month. Regulatory burdens associated with higher equipment costs in 2027 have also helped spur greater order activity. The higher cost estimates would certainly add greater incentive to dealers and large fleets to find the budget for equipment now rather than later.”
Regarding the HD vocational market, Vieth concluded, “With the four biggest technology companies in the US set to deploy $650 billion in capital toward data centers and associated AI buildout needs in 2026, the vocational market appears poised to continue benefitting from strong secular tailwinds that show little sign of slowing in the short term. Additionally, after pulling back on expected prebuying in 2025 due to regulatory and trade uncertainty, vocational orders, like tractor, are benefitting from EPA’27 clarity.”
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