Build production plans around a clearer market view.

Manufacturers need more than a snapshot of current demand. Order activity, backlog, build rates, inventory, freight conditions, fleet profitability, regulatory timing, and powertrain change all affect how and when customers buy.

ACT helps manufacturing teams connect these signals into a forward-looking market view that supports demand planning, production strategy, supplier alignment, and executive decision-making.

Recommended Bullets

• Demand Forecasting: Evaluate future demand for Class 8, medium-duty, trailer, engine, and powertrain markets with forward-looking forecasts.
• Production Planning: Connect orders, backlog, build, inventory, and retail sales to better production and capacity planning decisions.
• Market-Cycle Alignment: Understand how freight conditions, fleet profitability, replacement cycles, and regulatory timing may affect customer demand.

Market intelligence for manufacturing planning decisions

For 40 years, ACT Research has helped manufacturers understand commercial vehicle market change and prepare for what comes next.

Whether your team is planning production, evaluating customer demand, aligning suppliers, preparing for powertrain shifts, or assessing regulatory timing, ACT provides forecasts and analyst interpretation that help turn market complexity into clearer planning decisions.

Production Planning & Forecasting
Use monthly updates and long-term forecasts to evaluate future demand, align build plans, manage capacity, and prepare for changes across commercial vehicle, trailer, engine, and powertrain markets.

Supplier & Capacity Alignment
Understand market demand, production timing, order activity, and inventory signals that may affect supplier planning, component demand, capacity allocation, and operational readiness.

Product & Market Strategy

Evaluate new product introductions, market expansion opportunities, powertrain transitions, and segment-specific demand with intelligence grounded in commercial vehicle and freight market context.

Benchmarking & Competitive Context
Compare market movement, order trends, retail sales, production activity, and segment performance to better understand competitive dynamics and your position in the broader market cycle.

Regulatory & Powertrain Planning
Track regulatory timing, emissions requirements, powertrain adoption, and infrastructure readiness to better understand how compliance and technology shifts may affect demand, production, and customer behavior.

Updated May 27, 2026

Market Update - Manufacturers

May 2026 Update

Manufacturers Face Firmer Demand Signals as Discipline Holds and Regulatory Costs Remain in Focus

May brings a more constructive commercial vehicle backdrop for manufacturers, but the recovery remains uneven by segment. ACT’s latest N.A. Commercial Vehicle Outlook shows Class 8 demand improving as freight rates strengthen and capacity tightens, while trailer demand remains softer by comparison and medium-duty signals are improving more gradually.

For OEMs, suppliers, production planners, and sales teams, the key planning signal is demand quality. Freight-market tightening, regulatory timing, and replacement needs are supporting customer engagement, but elevated equipment costs, financing sensitivity, and uneven end-market demand continue to reinforce production discipline. The May source map identifies the N.A. Commercial Vehicle Outlook, SOI N.A. Classes 5–8, and SOI U.S. Trailers as the primary sources for order activity, build plans, backlog changes, segment demand shifts, replacement cycles, and trailer activity.

Class 8

Class 8 demand continues to recover from trough conditions, but April order activity moved lower from March as expected seasonally before 2027 orderboards open later this year. ACT’s latest Classes 5–8 report notes that Class 8 orders were supported by improved spot and contract rates, regulatory clarity, and tighter freight capacity.

From a production planning perspective, the signal is constructive but still measured. Class 8 backlogs increased to a multi-year high, and build plans improved, giving manufacturers better forward visibility without suggesting a broad speculative expansion. For OEMs and suppliers, the key questions are whether rate recovery continues, how fleets time replacement ahead of EPA 2027, and whether stronger freight economics translate into sustained order conversion.

Manufacturers should monitor tractor demand, vocational demand, backlog coverage, cancellation behavior, regulatory-timing effects, and customer financing sensitivity. The market is firmer than it was through much of the prior downturn, but buyer behavior remains disciplined.

Medium Duty

Medium-duty demand improved in April, with Classes 5–7 orders rising year over year. ACT’s latest Classes 5–8 report notes that easier comparisons helped the gain, but the improvement may also reflect steadier end-market activity and some regulatory-driven positioning.

The medium-duty signal is less forceful than Class 8. Backlogs declined month over month, and body-builder challenges remain a headwind. For manufacturers and suppliers, that suggests planning should remain focused on confirmed demand, segment-level differences, and production alignment rather than assuming a broad-based acceleration.

OEMs, suppliers, and sales teams should monitor whether recent order improvement converts into sustained retail activity, whether vocational and service-oriented applications remain resilient, and whether body-builder throughput improves enough to support smoother delivery timing.

Trailers

The trailer market improved in April, but the signal remains early-stage. ACT’s May U.S. Trailers report shows net orders increased sequentially, counter to normal seasonal expectations, and rose sharply year over year against an easier comparison. OEM demand commentary also turned more constructive, though caution remained around material, labor, and future trailer pricing pressures.

For trailer manufacturers and suppliers, the planning implication is encouraging but not yet definitive. Orders have outpaced build in most months this year, but backlogs remain thin relative to long-term norms, and cancellations remain elevated despite improving from March.

Manufacturers should monitor backlog rebuilding, cancellation trends, segment-level demand across dry vans, reefers, and flatbeds, and whether stronger truckload conditions translate into firmer replacement commitments. April’s order strength is a positive signal, but the market still requires follow-through before it can be treated as a broad upcycle.

Prebuy Activity Remains Measured as Regulatory Clarity Improves

EPA 2027 remains an important planning factor for manufacturers. Regulatory clarity has helped support fleet engagement and order activity, while higher expected equipment costs remain central to customer timing discussions. The March live version framed EPA 2027 as a key force shaping demand timing, prebuy discussions, and equipment cost expectations, and that framing remains relevant in May.

For manufacturers, the challenge is balancing customer interest with disciplined production planning. Stronger freight rates and tighter capacity may increase fleet willingness to plan ahead, but elevated capital costs and uneven profitability are likely to keep prebuy behavior measured. Suppliers and OEM planning teams should monitor orderboard timing, build-slot demand, certification timing, and customer conversations around 2027-spec pricing and availability.

Medium-Duty and Vocational Segments Show Relative Stability

Medium-duty and vocational demand remain important stabilizers, but performance is mixed by end market. Vocational Class 8 continues to benefit from infrastructure, utility, energy, and data-center-related activity, while some housing- and small-business-sensitive areas remain less robust. The March version identified these same infrastructure, utility, energy, and data-center-linked drivers as stabilizing forces for manufacturers.

For OEMs and suppliers, the implication is product-mix discipline. Demand is not moving uniformly across segments, so production planning should stay closely tied to confirmed orders, application-level strength, and customer timing. Segment-specific demand visibility matters more than broad market averages.

Outlook: Discipline Continues as Conditions Gradually Improve

ACT’s May reports suggest commercial vehicle manufacturers are operating in a firmer market than earlier in the cycle. Freight rates are improving, Class 8 demand has better support, medium-duty orders are improving from easier comparisons, and trailer orders surprised to the upside in April. Still, demand remains uneven, and cost pressure continues to shape fleet behavior.

For manufacturers, the practical takeaway is disciplined readiness. OEMs and suppliers should prepare for stronger replacement-driven demand while avoiding assumptions of broad expansion. The most important signals to monitor are Class 8 order quality, backlog coverage, medium-duty follow-through, trailer backlog rebuilding, cancellation trends, EPA 2027 timing, and whether freight-rate improvement continues to support fleet profitability and equipment replacement.

Market guidance for manufacturing planning decisions

ACT helps manufacturers understand the market signals that affect demand forecasting, production planning, inventory strategy, supplier alignment, and product development.

Our intelligence supports teams responsible for strategy, sales planning, finance, production, market analysis, and executive decision-making with a clearer view of commercial vehicle demand, freight conditions, equipment cycles, regulatory timing, and powertrain trends.

With ACT Research, manufacturing teams can:

• Make stronger strategic decisions with current market analysis and forward-looking commercial vehicle forecasts.
• Evaluate production and capacity plans with better visibility into orders, backlog, build, inventory, and retail sales trends.
• Connect freight conditions to equipment demand by understanding how rates, fleet profitability, and replacement cycles may affect customer buying behavior.
• Plan for powertrain and regulatory change with intelligence on emissions timing, ZEV adoption, engine demand, and infrastructure readiness.
• Spot risks and opportunities earlier across freight, economic, regulatory, equipment, and powertrain-cycle signals.
• Support financial and executive planning with market assumptions your team can defend.